Making a Difference

The latest available poverty estimates from the Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS) 2019/20 showed a poverty rate of 20.3 percent as measured by the national poverty line. Though the economy is projected to continue growing by 6.2 percent in 2025 and 2026 and accelerate to 10.4 percent in 2027 according to the latest MPO forecasts, as oil revenues come onstream, there remain several threats to poverty reduction. Given the high dependency on agriculture as a livelihood, with seven of ten Ugandan households reporting some form of agricultural income as their main source of income, and one in three Ugandans depending on own production for their food source, unfavorable weather conditions are a primary threat. Rising food inflation has already been observed in the early part of 2025 and threatens to exacerbate pre-existing challenges with food insecurity. Uncertainty in global trade policy could impact investment decisions with potential knock-on impacts on poverty. Using some of the anticipated revenue flows from oil production expected to come onstream in 2027 to help bolster the social protection system can help households recover from the impact of recent shocks and limit future exposure, while investments in infrastructure and human capital can help support poverty reduction over the longer term.